A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
